Aurélien Baillon

endowed professor of economics of uncertainty

 

featured publications

Econometrica
Baillon, Aurélien, Zhenxing Huang, Asli Selim, & Peter P. Wakker (2018). "Measuring Ambiguity Attitudes for All (Natural) Events" Econometrica, vol 86:5, pp.1839-1858.
online appendix - dataset - stimuli & code

PNAS
Baillon, Aurélien (2017). "Bayesian markets to elicit private information." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114:30, pp. 7958–7962.

The Economic Journal
Baillon, Aurélien (2017). "Prudence with respect to ambiguity." The Economic Journal, vol. 127:604, pp. 1731-1755.
online appendix

American Economic Review
Baillon, Aurélien, Olivier l'Haridon, & Laetitia Placido (2011), "Ambiguity models and the Machina paradoxes," American Economic Review, vol. 101:4, pp. 1547-1560.

American Economic Review
Abdellaoui, Mohammed, Aurélien Baillon, Laetitia Placido, & Peter P. Wakker (2011), "The rich domain of uncertainty: source functions and their experimental implementation," American Economic Review, vol. 101:2, pp. 699-727.
background material

 

all published papers

Operations Research
Baillon, Aurélien, Han Bleichrodt, Aysil Emirmahmutoglu, Johannes Jaspersen, & Richard Peter (forthcoming). "When Risk Perception Gets in the Way: Probability Weighting and Underprevention." Operations Research.

Management Science
Baillon, Aurélien, Han Bleichrodt, & Vitalie Spinu (2020). "Searching for the reference point." Management Science, vol. 66:1, pp.93-112.
online appendix - dataset


Baillon, Aurélien, Jeroen de Bruin, Aysil Emirmahmutoglu, Evelien van de Veer, & Bram van Dijk (2019). "Informing, simulating experience, or both: A field experiment on phishing risks." PLOS ONE, vol. 14:12, e0224216.
dataset

Journal of Economic Theory
Baillon, Aurélien & Laetitia Placido (2019). "Testing constant absolute and relative ambiguity aversion." Journal of Economic Theory, vol 181, pp.309-332.
supplementary material - dataset

International Economic Review
Baillon, Aurélien & Aysil Emirmahmutoglu (2018). "Zooming in on ambiguity attitudes." International Economic Review, vol. 59:4, pp.2107-2131.
dataset and instructions

Econometrica
Baillon, Aurélien, Zhenxing Huang, Asli Selim, & Peter P. Wakker (2018). "Measuring Ambiguity Attitudes for All (Natural) Events" Econometrica, vol 86:5, pp.1839-1858.
online appendix - dataset - stimuli & code

Management Science
Baillon, Aurélien, Han Bleichrodt, Umut Keskin, Olivier l'Haridon, & Chen Li (2018). "The effect of learning on ambiguity attitudes." Management Science, vol. 64:5, pp.2181-2198.
dataset

Experimental Economics
Baillon, Aurélien, Harris Schlesinger, & Gijs van de Kuilen (2018). "Measuring higher order ambiguity preferences." Experimental Economics, vol. 21:2, pp.233-256.
dataset

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Baillon, Aurélien, Han Bleichrodt, Zhenxing Huang, & Rogier Potter van Loon (2017). "Measuring ambiguity attitude: (extended) multiplier preferences for the American and the Dutch population." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 54:3, pp. 269-281.

The Economic Journal
Baillon, Aurélien (2017). "Prudence with respect to ambiguity." The Economic Journal, vol. 127:604, pp. 1731-1755.
online appendix

PNAS
Baillon, Aurélien (2017). "Bayesian markets to elicit private information." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114:30, pp. 7958–7962.

Theory and Decision
 
Baillon, Aurélien, Ning Liu, & Dennie van Dolder (2017). "Comparing uncertainty aversion towards different sources." Theory and Decision, vol. 83:1, pp. 1-18.
corrigendum

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Baillon, Aurélien, Han Bleichrodt, Ning Liu, & Peter. P. Wakker (2016) "Group decision rules and group rationality under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 52:2, pp. 99–116.
dataset

Journal of Economic Psychology
Baillon, Aurélien, Philipp Koellinger, & Theresa Treffers (2016) "Sadder but wiser: the effects of affective states on ambiguity attitudes," Journal of Economic Psychology, vol. 53, pp.67-82.


 
Baillon, Aurélien & Olivier l'Haridon (2016) "Les Modèles d'Ambiguïté : Modèles et évaluations expérimentales ," Actualité Economique, vol. 92:1-2, pp.81-111

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics
Baillon, Aurélien, & Han Bleichrodt (2015), "Testing ambiguity models through the measurement of probabilities for gains and losses," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, vol. 7:2, pp. 77-100. dataset - online appendix - corrigendum

Operations Research
Baillon, Aurélien, Han Bleichrodt, and Alessandra Cillo (2015), "A tailor-made test of intransitive choice," Operations Research, vol. 63:1, pp. 198-211. dataset - supplementary material

Evolution and Human Behavior
Baillon, Aurélien, Asli Selim, & Dennie van Dolder (2013), "On the social nature of eyes: the effect of social cues in interaction and individual choice tasks," Evolution and Human Behavior, vol. 34:2, pp. 146-154.
dataset - electronic supplementary material

Games and Economic Behavior
Baillon, Aurélien, Bram Driesen, and Peter P. Wakker (2012), "Relative concave utility for risk and ambiguity," Games and Economic Behavior, vol. 75:2, pp. 481-489.

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Baillon, Aurélien, Laure Cabantous, and Peter P. Wakker (2012), "Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: an experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 44, pp. 115-147.
dataset

American Economic Review
Baillon, Aurélien, Olivier l'Haridon, & Laetitia Placido (2011), "Ambiguity models and the Machina paradoxes," American Economic Review, vol. 101:4, pp. 1547-1560.

American Economic Review
Abdellaoui, Mohammed, Aurélien Baillon, Laetitia Placido, & Peter P. Wakker (2011), "The rich domain of uncertainty: source functions and their experimental implementation," American Economic Review, vol. 101:2, pp. 699-727.
background material

Decision Analysis
Baillon, Aurélien (2008), "Eliciting subjective probabilities through exchangeable events: an advantage and a limitation," Decision Analysis, vol. 5:2, pp. 76-87.
dataset

 

Working papers

Aurélien Baillon, Han Bleichrodt, Chen Li, & Peter P. Wakker "Belief Hedges: Applying Ambiguity Measurements to All Events and All Ambiguity Models."

Johnson, Cathleen, Aurélien Baillon, Han Bleichrodt, Zhihua Li, Dennie van Dolder, & Peter P. Wakker "Prince: An Improved Method For Measuring Incentivized Preferences."

Baillon, Aurélien, Yoram Halevy, & Chen Li " Experimental Elicitation of Ambiguity Attitude using Random Incentive System."

Baillon, Aurélien, Aleli Kraft, Owen O'Donnell, & Kim van Wilgenburg "A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper.

Baillon, Aurélien, Joseph Capuno, Owen O'Donnell, Carlos Tan, & Kim van Wilgenburg "Persistent Effects of Temporary Incentives: Evidence from a Nationwide Health Insurance Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper.